Reclamation Consequences Estimating Methodology (RCEM)

Description

The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) Consequences Estimating Method (RCEM) is an empirically-based method for estimating life loss consequences from dam failure in support of dam safety risk analysis. This RCEM methodology considers the intensity of flooding and warning time to be the most important factors when selecting ranges of fatality rates for a given exposed population. The method is a simplified approach which relies on a data set comprised of dam failure, flash flood, and other flood-related case histories as a basis for fatality rate selection. Consensus results are developed through a team approach to life loss estimation and confidence in life loss estimates are evaluated. RCEM is the primary method currently used by Reclamation to estimate dam failure life loss.

Objectives

The attendee will learn the basics of dam failure life loss estimation for risk analysis, as illustrated through the application of the RCEM method.

The course agenda will cover an introduction to concepts regarding dam failure consequences estimation, discussion of dam failure case histories, interpretation of inundation modeling output data, warning and evacuation, and the estimation of downstream population at risk. The RCEM method will be introduced and discussed in some detail, and an example RCEM analysis will be conducted as a hands-on exercise for participants.

Target Audience

Owners of Dams, Engineers, Geologists, All Involved with Dam Safety Risk Analysis

Dom Galic

Geotechical Engineer

Bureau of Reclamation

Dom Galic is a geotechnical engineer with the Bureau of Reclamation's TechnicalService Center in Denver. He has been with Reclamation for over ten years, sincecompleting his doctoral research (in rock mechanics) at the University of California,Berkeley. Dom has been a risk analysis facilitator since 2011 and is an active memberof the Reclamation risk cadre, a working group established to provide training andguidance on risk analysis methodology and promote consistency in risk informeddecision making. He is a registered professional engineer in the State of Colorado.

Bruce Feinberg

Senior Hydraulic Engineer

Bureau of Reclamation

Bruce Feinberg is a senior hydraulic engineer, with the Bureau of Reclamation since1990. He specializes in dam failure inundation modeling, life loss consequencesestimation and downstream hazard classification. Bruce was part of the Reclamationteam which developed the RCEM methodology.